Anthropic Research: Reviewing the Evidence on Worker Retraining Programs

Anthropic and independent researcher David Roodman have published a review of the evidence on worker retraining programs, concluding that existing programs are likely insufficient to handle large-scale labor market disruptions caused by AI. While these programs generally produce modest positive results, their current scale and efficacy are not enough to offset significant AI-driven displacement.

Analysis of Job Training Program Efficacy

Job training programs typically yield positive but modest gains in employment and earnings. Based on a meta-analysis of 56 randomized US studies and experimental evidence from Europe, the research finds the following outcomes for each person offered a training slot:

• Employment: Increases by two to three percentage points.
• Earnings: Increase by approximately $1,000 per year.
• Cost: Approximately $13,000 per person.

From a government perspective, the programs roughly break even overall when accounting for added tax revenue and reduced benefit payments, as the government recovers more than half of the initial expenditure.

High-Performance Sector Programs

Certain "sector programs"—which partner with employers in high-demand industries to place workers directly into jobs—produce gains several times larger than the average training program. However, the research notes that attempts to replicate these successful models have often failed.

Implications for AI-Driven Labor Market Disruption

Because average gains are modest and high-performance programs are difficult to replicate, the authors conclude that existing retraining programs would likely fall short if AI displaces workers at scale. This research is part of a broader effort by Anthropic's Economic Research team to understand AI's effects on the economy, complementing their Economic Index and Economic Policy Framework.

Recommendations for Policy and Research

To prepare for potential labor market shifts, the authors recommend investing immediately in demonstrating, evaluating, and scaling the most promising retraining programs. This includes rapidly expanding leading programs for specific worker groups and implementing rigorous measurement of the results. Anthropic supports these investigations through its Economic Futures Research Fund.