The Impact of Vehicle Size on Pedestrian Fatalities in the US

The Correlation Between Vehicle Size and Pedestrian Deaths

Since 2009, pedestrian fatalities in the United States have risen by approximately 75 percent. A New York Times investigation found that the trend toward larger vehicles—specifically SUVs and pickup trucks—is a significant contributing factor. The investigation estimates that between 200 and 400 pedestrians per year would not have died if vehicles had remained approximately the same size as they were in 2002. This represents roughly 10 percent of the recent increase in pedestrian deaths.

Why Larger Vehicles Are More Lethal

Larger vehicles increase pedestrian risk through two primary mechanical factors: hood height and driver visibility.

Increased Hood Height

Modern vehicles frequently have hoods that exceed the average American adult's center of gravity (roughly the belly button). When a pedestrian is struck by a high-hood vehicle, they are more likely to be "punted" forward and under the wheel rather than being thrown onto the hood, which often results in more devastating collisions even at lower speeds.

• 2002 Toyota Corolla: 26-inch hood
• 2014 Ford Escape: 36-inch hood
• 2022 Chevrolet Silverado: 47-inch hood

Approximately 39 percent of today's vehicles would likely knock down a person shorter than 5-foot-6, compared to 29 percent in 2002.

Expanded Blind Zones

Using 3D scanning and aperture projection, the investigation analyzed sightlines in popular pickup trucks. The results showed that blind zones have expanded significantly since the 1990s and early 2000s:

• Chevrolet Silverado: Blind zones nearly doubled.
• GMC Sierra and Toyota Tacoma: Blind zones grew by approximately 60 percent.
• Ford F-150: Blind zones grew by approximately 25 percent.

The Role of Safety Regulations and Market Forces

Vehicle design has been influenced by a conflict between occupant safety and pedestrian safety. In 2009, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) required stronger roofs to prevent rollover deaths, leading automakers to install thicker A-pillars. While this made the vehicle occupants safer, it significantly reduced the driver's ability to see pedestrians crossing the street.

From a business perspective, larger vehicles are highly profitable for automakers. The average sticker price for a full-size pickup is approximately $70,000—double that of a sedan. Because the cost of increase in raw materials is relatively low, SUVs and pickups have become the primary source of profit for companies like Ford and GM.

Technological Mitigations and Their Limitations

Automakers and the NHTSA point to automated collision-avoidance systems and front pedestrian braking as the primary solution. GM cites a study indicating that front pedestrian braking reduced injury frequency by 35 percent.

However, critics and safety experts argue that technology is not a perfect substitute for direct visibility. Owner's manuals for many popular vehicles warn that these systems can fail in bad weather, at high speeds, or when pedestrians are not standing upright (such as children or people pushing strollers).

Counterpoints and Alternative Theories

While the NYT investigation highlights vehicle size, other data and perspectives suggest a more complex landscape:

• Driver Behavior: Some analysts argue that the rise of smartphone use (starting around 2007) is a more significant driver of pedestrian deaths than vehicle size, noting that pedestrian deaths decreased from 1980 to 2009 even as trucks grew larger.
• International Comparisons: Some evidence suggests that countries like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have seen similar trends toward larger vehicles without experiencing the same spike in pedestrian fatalities, suggesting that American driver attitudes toward safety and phone use may be the primary differentiator.
• Infrastructure: Industry spokespeople, such as those from Ford, argue that systemic issues including road design are overlooked when blaming vehicle size alone.

Methodology of the NYT Analysis

To estimate the impact of hood height, the New York Times used a logistic regression model based on N.H.T.S.A.’s Crash Report Sampling System (C.R.S.S.) from 2016 to 2024. The model accounted for variables such as speed limit, weather, lighting, alcohol, and the age and sex of the pedestrians and drivers. The analysis found that for every one-inch increase in hood height, the odds of a pedestrian fatality increased by 2.8 percent.