Canada Nuclear Strategy 2040: Plans for 10 New Reactors and Global Expansion

Canada's National Nuclear Strategy: The Path to 2040

Canada is planning to build up to 10 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years as part of a broader effort to double the capacity of its electricity grid by 2050. Energy Minister Tim Hodgson has framed this initiative as a "civilian nuclear renaissance," asserting that nuclear energy is essential for providing the clean, reliable baseload power required to transition to a low-carbon economy.

Infrastructure and Deployment Timeline

The federal strategy sets specific milestones for the construction and development of nuclear capacity:

  • Large-scale reactors: Construction is slated to begin on two new large-scale reactors by 2035.
  • Development pipeline: Five additional reactors are expected to be planned or under development by 2040.
  • Regional diversification: At least one reactor must be under construction outside of Ontario by 2035.
  • Microreactors: A Canadian-made microreactor is to be finalized by 2035 and deployed to a remote community by the late 2030s.

Currently, Canada operates four nuclear power plants—three in Ontario and one in New Brunswick—which provide approximately 15% of the nation's electricity. A notable project is the proposed facility at the Darlington plant in Ontario, which aims to build the first small modular reactor (SMR) in the G7, capable of producing up to 300 megawatts per unit.

Economic Impact and Funding

Officials from Natural Resources Canada estimate that the construction of these reactors could cost more than $100 billion. While the strategy does not explicitly detail a funding mechanism, government officials have pointed to the Canada Growth Fund and the Canadian Infrastructure Bank as potential sources of capital.

From a labor perspective, the government expects the strategy to double employment in the nuclear sector, increasing the workforce from approximately 90,000 jobs to over 180,000 in the coming decades.

Global Export Strategy and Geopolitics

Canada intends to use its nuclear technology as a geopolitical tool to strengthen international ties and diversify trading relationships. The strategy aims to break into at least four new international markets by 2040 and engage six to 10 new nuclear entrant markets over the next 15 years.

Central to this effort is the Candu reactor, which currently operates in 30 locations worldwide, including India, China, South Korea, Pakistan, Argentina, and Romania. A key competitive advantage of Candu reactors is that they do not require enriched uranium, a critical benefit as Western allies seek to reduce reliance on Russia, a primary global supplier of enriched uranium. If export goals are not met, the government is considering boosting domestic uranium enrichment to supply other reactor types.

Critical Perspectives and Implementation Challenges

Despite the government's ambitions, the plan faces significant scrutiny regarding its feasibility and execution.

Technical and Timeline Skepticism

Critics argue that the proposed timelines are overly optimistic. Some observers point to the Hinkley Point project in the UK as a cautionary tale, where initial estimates for a 2019 online date shifted to 2030, with costs ballooning from £18 billion to roughly £46 billion.

"Construction start is too far away. ... 'planned or under development' seems like a big 'or'."

Political and Regulatory Hurdles

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the plan as a series of promises without results, calling for the repeal of "anti-development laws" and the depoliticization of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission to ensure affordable electricity.

There is also ongoing tension regarding the impact assessment process. The government proposed transferring impact assessments for nuclear projects from the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, but this move has been delayed due to pushback from Indigenous and environmental groups.

Environmental and Economic Concerns

Discussion among industry observers highlights unresolved issues such as nuclear waste management and the high cost of nuclear power compared to renewables. Some suggest that the economic viability of these projects will depend on whether the government guarantees a fixed minimum price per megawatt-hour (MWh) to attract private investment.

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